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IMD anticipates a below-normal monsoon in 2026
- India is likely to receive only 92% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall during the 2026 monsoon (June-September).
- Reason: likely development of an El Niño (periodic warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific).
- Two factors can neutralise the El Niño effect:
- Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): likely to develop towards the end of the southwest monsoon season → A positive IOD features warmer western Indian Ocean waters and cooler eastern waters, strengthening the south-westerly monsoon.
- Below normal Eurasian snow cover from January to March 2026 → reduced snow cover enhances land heating, strengthening the low-pressure system over India, attracting south-west monsoon winds.
- Notably, India has received “normal” or excess rainfall in all years since 2020 except 2023 (below normal) → 2024 and 2025 witnessed surplus monsoon.
Long Period Average (LPA)
- LPA is the climatic “normal” derived from long-term rainfall data, enabling comparison of current-year rainfall against the usual pattern.
- IMD calculates LPA as the average rainfall over India for the southwest monsoon (June–September) using 50 years of data (1971–2020).
- India’s current all-India LPA stands at 87 cm.
IMD’s 5-category probability forecasts
| Category | Rainfall Range (% of LPA) |
|---|---|
| Deficient | < 90 |
| Below Normal | 90 – 95 |
| Normal | 96 -104 |
| Above Normal | 105-110 |
| Excess | > 110 |
Major works of Subhas Chandra Bose
- The Anti-Imperialist Struggle and Samyavada (1933): highlights political contributions of various countries, e.g. England’s constitutionalism, French notions of liberty and fraternity, Germany’s Marxism and Russian proletarian revolution, and anticipates that the next remarkable contribution to the world’s political lineage could be from India in the form of Samyavada.
- The Indian Struggle (1934)
- Contemplates a synthesis between fascism and Communism to arrive at Samyavada, embodying the good points of both.
- Suggests a federal government for India with a strong centre having a certain amount of authoritarianism for a period of time for quicker reconstruction of the nation.
- An Indian Pilgrim (1937): autobiography of Bose.
- Forward Bloc — Its Justification (1941): highlights the goals of Samyavada as—
- Complete national independence
- Scientific large-scale production
- Social ownership and control of production and distribution
- Application of the principles of equality and social justice in building up the new order in free India.
- The Fundamental Problems of India (1944): discusses core socio-economic challenges for independent India.
Quick Picks for Pre and Mains (QPPM)
- CPI new series: Base year is 2024 → uses Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023-24.
- Peter Magyar: set to become Hungary’s new prime minister.
- Spratly Islands: a strategically important island group in the South China Sea, disputed among China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei.
- Boko Haram: a militant group based mainly in northeastern Nigeria.
- Hezbollah: Iran-backed militant and political group in Lebanon.
Coming soon…